The Bank of Mexico's May 7 decision to cut its reference rate by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, paired with explicit forward guidance that the policy stance is now appropriate to maintain amid above-target inflation, anchors the 92.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. April headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent and core to 4.26 percent, while first-quarter GDP contracted, widening economic slack without generating second-round price pressures. Traders view the 3-2 split vote and upward revisions to near-term inflation forecasts as reinforcing a data-dependent pause, consistent with the terminal rate path priced by major banks. A sharper core disinflation print or accelerated growth rebound could reopen room for further easing, though geopolitical risks continue to support caution.