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icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto

Flávio Bolsonaro 76%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 22.9%

Renan Santos <1%

Tarcisio de Freitas <1%

Polymarket

$7,437,525 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 76%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 22.9%

Renan Santos <1%

Tarcisio de Freitas <1%

Polymarket

$7,437,525 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$924,636 Vol.

76%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$793,197 Vol.

23%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,331,517 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$274,561 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$205,331 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$810,518 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$229,030 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$173,947 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$750,182 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$507,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$421,735 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$207,849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$231,008 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$144,665 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$142,390 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$36,533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$21,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$230,482 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent national polls from Datafolha, AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, and others show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) narrowly ahead or statistically tied with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the 39–44% range, while all other registered candidates remain in low single digits. This positioning reflects the concentration of right-leaning and anti-incumbent support behind the Liberal Party nominee, who carries the endorsement of his ineligible father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Alternative conservative or centrist figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos have failed to break out despite the polarized environment and ongoing debates over economic policy, Supreme Court actions, and Bolsa Família adjustments. With first-round rules advancing only the top two to an October 25 runoff, market pricing aligns with polling aggregates indicating Flávio as the clear runner-up favorite absent a late surge by a lesser-known contender.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,437,525
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent national polls from Datafolha, AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, and others show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) narrowly ahead or statistically tied with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the 39–44% range, while all other registered candidates remain in low single digits. This positioning reflects the concentration of right-leaning and anti-incumbent support behind the Liberal Party nominee, who carries the endorsement of his ineligible father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Alternative conservative or centrist figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos have failed to break out despite the polarized environment and ongoing debates over economic policy, Supreme Court actions, and Bolsa Família adjustments. With first-round rules advancing only the top two to an October 25 runoff, market pricing aligns with polling aggregates indicating Flávio as the clear runner-up favorite absent a late surge by a lesser-known contender.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,437,525
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...

Correlati

icon for Renan Santos finirà al terzo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Renan Santos finirà al terzo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

54%
Sì
icon for Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

77%
Sì
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

93%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 18 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Flávio Bolsonaro" a 76%, seguito da "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" a 23%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 76¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 76% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" ha generato $7.4 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 11, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto", esplora i 18 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" è "Flávio Bolsonaro" a 76%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 76% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" a 23%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.