Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-32 House Election Winner
CA-32 House Election Winner
$24,931 Vol.
$24,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$24,931 Vol.
$24,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$11,496 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$13,435 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$24,931Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,931Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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