The strong Democratic structural lean in California’s 31st congressional district, combined with incumbent Gil Cisneros’s established position, underpins traders’ overwhelming 93.5% consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe for the party, limiting any realistic Republican path forward even with candidates Eric Ching and Erskine Levi competing in the June 2 primary. Recent filings and the absence of major shifts since redistricting have reinforced this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing the outcome. The only plausible disruptions remain an unforeseen national political wave or a highly unusual primary upset that somehow narrows the general-election gap, though both scenarios face steep historical and demographic barriers in this Inland Empire district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-31 House Election Winner
CA-31 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,528 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$3,113 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic structural lean in California’s 31st congressional district, combined with incumbent Gil Cisneros’s established position, underpins traders’ overwhelming 93.5% consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe for the party, limiting any realistic Republican path forward even with candidates Eric Ching and Erskine Levi competing in the June 2 primary. Recent filings and the absence of major shifts since redistricting have reinforced this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing the outcome. The only plausible disruptions remain an unforeseen national political wave or a highly unusual primary upset that somehow narrows the general-election gap, though both scenarios face steep historical and demographic barriers in this Inland Empire district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$6,642Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic structural lean in California’s 31st congressional district, combined with incumbent Gil Cisneros’s established position, underpins traders’ overwhelming 93.5% consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe for the party, limiting any realistic Republican path forward even with candidates Eric Ching and Erskine Levi competing in the June 2 primary. Recent filings and the absence of major shifts since redistricting have reinforced this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing the outcome. The only plausible disruptions remain an unforeseen national political wave or a highly unusual primary upset that somehow narrows the general-election gap, though both scenarios face steep historical and demographic barriers in this Inland Empire district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,642Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic structural lean in California’s 31st congressional district, combined with incumbent Gil Cisneros’s established position, underpins traders’ overwhelming 93.5% consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe for the party, limiting any realistic Republican path forward even with candidates Eric Ching and Erskine Levi competing in the June 2 primary. Recent filings and the absence of major shifts since redistricting have reinforced this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing the outcome. The only plausible disruptions remain an unforeseen national political wave or a highly unusual primary upset that somehow narrows the general-election gap, though both scenarios face steep historical and demographic barriers in this Inland Empire district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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