Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?
Iván Cepeda Castro 84%
Abelardo de la Espriella 16.3%
Paloma Valencia <1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$5,977,278 Vol.
$5,977,278 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$536,696 Vol.
84%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,041,425 Vol.
16%
Paloma Valencia
$594,995 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$441,350 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$298,122 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$300,293 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$283,057 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$156,932 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$229,484 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$209,235 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$235,184 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$287,138 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$285,258 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$256,693 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$144,829 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$335,378 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$305,388 Vol.
<1%
Iván Cepeda Castro 84%
Abelardo de la Espriella 16.3%
Paloma Valencia <1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$5,977,278 Vol.
$5,977,278 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$536,696 Vol.
84%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,041,425 Vol.
16%
Paloma Valencia
$594,995 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$441,350 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$298,122 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$300,293 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$283,057 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$156,932 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$229,484 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$209,235 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$235,184 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$287,138 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$285,258 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$256,693 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$144,829 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$335,378 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$305,388 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
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Domande frequenti
" Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 18 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Iván Cepeda Castro" a 84%, seguito da "Abelardo de la Espriella" a 16%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 84¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" ha generato $6 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 23, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?", esplora i 18 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" è "Iván Cepeda Castro" a 84%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Abelardo de la Espriella" a 16%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $6 million scambiati su " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 84¢ per "Iván Cepeda Castro" nel mercato " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 84% che "Iván Cepeda Castro" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 84¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 16¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al May 31, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?" ha una comunità attiva di 39 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come " Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
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