Recent National Meteorological Center guidance and ensemble model runs place Chengdu's August 14 maximum in the mid-30s Celsius, reflecting persistent subtropical high pressure and weak steering flow that favor gradual warming across the Sichuan Basin. High humidity near 70 percent and limited daytime mixing amplify perceived heat while scattered afternoon convection or thin cloud decks could shave 1–2 °C from peak readings, explaining why 36 °C leads at 25.5 percent implied probability ahead of 37 °C. Urban heat-island effects around the city center add another 0.5–1 °C relative to rural stations, yet any earlier or stronger monsoon surge could increase cloud cover and lower the outcome toward 35 °C. Updated model guidance and official 48-hour forecasts remain the key near-term catalysts.