**Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AEMET indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 37–39 °C on 13 August under clear skies, light north-easterly winds, and negligible precipitation, producing strong solar heating over the urban heat island.** Historical August averages hover near 32–33 °C, so the current pattern reflects a modest heat anomaly without extreme heatwave conditions. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with only small upside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains suppressed. The resulting market-implied probabilities—concentrated on 39 °C (55.5 %) and 40 °C (30.5 %)—mirror this consensus while incorporating the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will determine whether any slight upward revision occurs before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 13 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 13 agosto?
39°C 56%
40°C 32%
38°C 6%
41°C 5%
NUOVO
$11,378 Vol.
NUOVO
$11,378 Vol.
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
6%
39°C
56%
40°C
32%
41°C
5%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C o superiore
<1%
39°C 56%
40°C 32%
38°C 6%
41°C 5%
NUOVO
$11,378 Vol.
NUOVO
$11,378 Vol.
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
$402 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$251 Vol.
1%
37°C
$360 Vol.
2%
38°C
$709 Vol.
6%
39°C
$1,616 Vol.
56%
40°C
$6,604 Vol.
32%
41°C
$526 Vol.
5%
42°C
$265 Vol.
1%
43°C
$166 Vol.
1%
44°C
$360 Vol.
<1%
45°C o superiore
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AEMET indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 37–39 °C on 13 August under clear skies, light north-easterly winds, and negligible precipitation, producing strong solar heating over the urban heat island.** Historical August averages hover near 32–33 °C, so the current pattern reflects a modest heat anomaly without extreme heatwave conditions. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with only small upside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains suppressed. The resulting market-implied probabilities—concentrated on 39 °C (55.5 %) and 40 °C (30.5 %)—mirror this consensus while incorporating the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will determine whether any slight upward revision occurs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$11,378Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AEMET indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 37–39 °C on 13 August under clear skies, light north-easterly winds, and negligible precipitation, producing strong solar heating over the urban heat island.** Historical August averages hover near 32–33 °C, so the current pattern reflects a modest heat anomaly without extreme heatwave conditions. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with only small upside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains suppressed. The resulting market-implied probabilities—concentrated on 39 °C (55.5 %) and 40 °C (30.5 %)—mirror this consensus while incorporating the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will determine whether any slight upward revision occurs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,378Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AEMET indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 37–39 °C on 13 August under clear skies, light north-easterly winds, and negligible precipitation, producing strong solar heating over the urban heat island.** Historical August averages hover near 32–33 °C, so the current pattern reflects a modest heat anomaly without extreme heatwave conditions. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with only small upside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains suppressed. The resulting market-implied probabilities—concentrated on 39 °C (55.5 %) and 40 °C (30.5 %)—mirror this consensus while incorporating the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will determine whether any slight upward revision occurs before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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