Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from GFS and regional runs, position Madrid's August 13 maximum near 38–39°C under a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing. Official outlooks from agencies highlight this range amid an extended warm spell, with 40°C possible if afternoon heating peaks higher than expected. Historical August baselines average 32–35°C, so the elevated probabilities for 39°C (53.5%) and 40°C (36.0%) reflect model agreement on sustained heat without significant cooling advection or cloud cover, though minor forecast shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind could adjust the exact peak by 1°C before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 13 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 13 agosto?
39°C 54%
40°C 38%
38°C 6%
41°C 5%
NUOVO
$21,817 Vol.
NUOVO
$21,817 Vol.
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
6%
39°C
54%
40°C
38%
41°C
5%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C o superiore
<1%
39°C 54%
40°C 38%
38°C 6%
41°C 5%
NUOVO
$21,817 Vol.
NUOVO
$21,817 Vol.
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$835 Vol.
1%
37°C
$804 Vol.
1%
38°C
$2,412 Vol.
6%
39°C
$2,809 Vol.
54%
40°C
$9,710 Vol.
38%
41°C
$1,454 Vol.
5%
42°C
$721 Vol.
1%
43°C
$524 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$841 Vol.
<1%
45°C o superiore
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from GFS and regional runs, position Madrid's August 13 maximum near 38–39°C under a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing. Official outlooks from agencies highlight this range amid an extended warm spell, with 40°C possible if afternoon heating peaks higher than expected. Historical August baselines average 32–35°C, so the elevated probabilities for 39°C (53.5%) and 40°C (36.0%) reflect model agreement on sustained heat without significant cooling advection or cloud cover, though minor forecast shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind could adjust the exact peak by 1°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$21,817Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from GFS and regional runs, position Madrid's August 13 maximum near 38–39°C under a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing. Official outlooks from agencies highlight this range amid an extended warm spell, with 40°C possible if afternoon heating peaks higher than expected. Historical August baselines average 32–35°C, so the elevated probabilities for 39°C (53.5%) and 40°C (36.0%) reflect model agreement on sustained heat without significant cooling advection or cloud cover, though minor forecast shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind could adjust the exact peak by 1°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,817Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from GFS and regional runs, position Madrid's August 13 maximum near 38–39°C under a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing. Official outlooks from agencies highlight this range amid an extended warm spell, with 40°C possible if afternoon heating peaks higher than expected. Historical August baselines average 32–35°C, so the elevated probabilities for 39°C (53.5%) and 40°C (36.0%) reflect model agreement on sustained heat without significant cooling advection or cloud cover, though minor forecast shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind could adjust the exact peak by 1°C before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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