**Trader sentiment for Wellington's highest temperature on August 14 centers on 13–14°C (combined ~83% implied probability), reflecting broad forecast consensus for near-average winter conditions.** Multiple models and outlooks, including NIWA's seasonal assessment, indicate temperatures most likely to remain near historical August averages of roughly 12–13°C for daily highs, with short-range guidance from sources like AccuWeather and local forecasters projecting a maximum around 13–14°C amid typical southerly flows and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the region's climatology, where August maxima rarely exceed 15°C without strong northerly advection or clear anticyclonic setups, and current ensemble runs show limited spread toward warmer or cooler extremes. Recent data releases reinforce stability, with no major model shifts or anomalous sea-surface temperature patterns altering the outlook in the past week; traders are thus pricing in the narrow window between 13°C and 14°C as the resolution range most consistent with official monitoring criteria and expected variability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 14 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 14 agosto?
14°C 49%
13°C 34%
15°C 11%
12°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ago 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
6%
13°C
34%
14°C
49%
15°C
11%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 49%
13°C 34%
15°C 11%
12°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ago 2026
8°C or below
$331 Vol.
1%
9°C
$319 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$399 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$5 Vol.
3%
12°C
$60 Vol.
6%
13°C
$162 Vol.
34%
14°C
$301 Vol.
49%
15°C
$14 Vol.
11%
16°C
$40 Vol.
2%
17°C
$7 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$18 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's highest temperature on August 14 centers on 13–14°C (combined ~83% implied probability), reflecting broad forecast consensus for near-average winter conditions.** Multiple models and outlooks, including NIWA's seasonal assessment, indicate temperatures most likely to remain near historical August averages of roughly 12–13°C for daily highs, with short-range guidance from sources like AccuWeather and local forecasters projecting a maximum around 13–14°C amid typical southerly flows and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the region's climatology, where August maxima rarely exceed 15°C without strong northerly advection or clear anticyclonic setups, and current ensemble runs show limited spread toward warmer or cooler extremes. Recent data releases reinforce stability, with no major model shifts or anomalous sea-surface temperature patterns altering the outlook in the past week; traders are thus pricing in the narrow window between 13°C and 14°C as the resolution range most consistent with official monitoring criteria and expected variability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,656Data di fine
14 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's highest temperature on August 14 centers on 13–14°C (combined ~83% implied probability), reflecting broad forecast consensus for near-average winter conditions.** Multiple models and outlooks, including NIWA's seasonal assessment, indicate temperatures most likely to remain near historical August averages of roughly 12–13°C for daily highs, with short-range guidance from sources like AccuWeather and local forecasters projecting a maximum around 13–14°C amid typical southerly flows and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the region's climatology, where August maxima rarely exceed 15°C without strong northerly advection or clear anticyclonic setups, and current ensemble runs show limited spread toward warmer or cooler extremes. Recent data releases reinforce stability, with no major model shifts or anomalous sea-surface temperature patterns altering the outlook in the past week; traders are thus pricing in the narrow window between 13°C and 14°C as the resolution range most consistent with official monitoring criteria and expected variability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,656Data di fine
14 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington's highest temperature on August 14 centers on 13–14°C (combined ~83% implied probability), reflecting broad forecast consensus for near-average winter conditions.** Multiple models and outlooks, including NIWA's seasonal assessment, indicate temperatures most likely to remain near historical August averages of roughly 12–13°C for daily highs, with short-range guidance from sources like AccuWeather and local forecasters projecting a maximum around 13–14°C amid typical southerly flows and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the region's climatology, where August maxima rarely exceed 15°C without strong northerly advection or clear anticyclonic setups, and current ensemble runs show limited spread toward warmer or cooler extremes. Recent data releases reinforce stability, with no major model shifts or anomalous sea-surface temperature patterns altering the outlook in the past week; traders are thus pricing in the narrow window between 13°C and 14°C as the resolution range most consistent with official monitoring criteria and expected variability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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