Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0 (0 bps) 70.5%
1 (25 pb) 16%
2 (50 punti base) 7%
3 (75 pb) 2.7%
$26,894,768 Vol.
$26,894,768 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
71%
1 (25 pb)
16%
2 (50 punti base)
7%
3 (75 pb)
3%
4 (100 bps)
2%
5 (125 punti base)
1%
6 (150 pb)
1%
7 (175 pb)
<1%
8 (200 pb)
<1%
9 (225 pb)
<1%
10 (250 punti base)
<1%
11 (275 pb)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 70.5%
1 (25 pb) 16%
2 (50 punti base) 7%
3 (75 pb) 2.7%
$26,894,768 Vol.
$26,894,768 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,187,685 Vol.
71%
1 (25 pb)
$1,244,767 Vol.
16%
2 (50 punti base)
$1,204,227 Vol.
7%
3 (75 pb)
$1,113,801 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$1,195,404 Vol.
2%
5 (125 punti base)
$1,416,797 Vol.
1%
6 (150 pb)
$2,486,259 Vol.
1%
7 (175 pb)
$1,322,162 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 pb)
$1,728,594 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 pb)
$2,451,665 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 punti base)
$3,119,769 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 pb)
$3,270,425 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,153,302 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercato aperto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,894,768Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,894,768Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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