Trader sentiment for May 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects near-average activity so far, with preliminary counts through mid-month tracking close to the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 265. Recent confirmed outbreaks, including the May 6–7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Mississippi and Oklahoma, have contributed modestly above-normal daily reports, while Illinois and the central Plains continue to show elevated frequency. National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center preliminary data indicate totals remain within the typical seasonal ramp-up, but the second half of the month hinges on evolving jet-stream patterns, moisture return, and convective available potential energy across the Great Plains. These variables introduce substantial forecast uncertainty, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 230–259 and 260–289 bins as traders weigh historical analogs against current model guidance through month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 42%
260–289 37%
230–259 35%
200–229 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 giu 2026
<200
39%
200–229
34%
230–259
35%
260–289
37%
290–319
14%
320–349
11%
350–379
11%
380–410
6%
410+
9%
<200 42%
260–289 37%
230–259 35%
200–229 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 giu 2026
<200
$230 Vol.
39%
200–229
$0 Vol.
34%
230–259
$0 Vol.
35%
260–289
$0 Vol.
37%
290–319
$0 Vol.
14%
320–349
$10 Vol.
11%
350–379
$10 Vol.
11%
380–410
$0 Vol.
6%
410+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for May 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects near-average activity so far, with preliminary counts through mid-month tracking close to the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 265. Recent confirmed outbreaks, including the May 6–7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Mississippi and Oklahoma, have contributed modestly above-normal daily reports, while Illinois and the central Plains continue to show elevated frequency. National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center preliminary data indicate totals remain within the typical seasonal ramp-up, but the second half of the month hinges on evolving jet-stream patterns, moisture return, and convective available potential energy across the Great Plains. These variables introduce substantial forecast uncertainty, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 230–259 and 260–289 bins as traders weigh historical analogs against current model guidance through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$250Data di fine
8 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for May 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects near-average activity so far, with preliminary counts through mid-month tracking close to the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 265. Recent confirmed outbreaks, including the May 6–7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Mississippi and Oklahoma, have contributed modestly above-normal daily reports, while Illinois and the central Plains continue to show elevated frequency. National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center preliminary data indicate totals remain within the typical seasonal ramp-up, but the second half of the month hinges on evolving jet-stream patterns, moisture return, and convective available potential energy across the Great Plains. These variables introduce substantial forecast uncertainty, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 230–259 and 260–289 bins as traders weigh historical analogs against current model guidance through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$250Data di fine
8 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for May 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects near-average activity so far, with preliminary counts through mid-month tracking close to the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 265. Recent confirmed outbreaks, including the May 6–7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Mississippi and Oklahoma, have contributed modestly above-normal daily reports, while Illinois and the central Plains continue to show elevated frequency. National Weather Service surveys and Storm Prediction Center preliminary data indicate totals remain within the typical seasonal ramp-up, but the second half of the month hinges on evolving jet-stream patterns, moisture return, and convective available potential energy across the Great Plains. These variables introduce substantial forecast uncertainty, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 230–259 and 260–289 bins as traders weigh historical analogs against current model guidance through month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti