Internal power struggles in Iran have intensified following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including members of the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of advancing a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role while sidelining the supreme leader’s office, parliament, and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports from mid-August highlight a military junta consolidating authority, with new billboards in Tehran featuring IRGC-linked figures over traditional clerical symbols. Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned on August 17 of risks including coups and external infiltration. These factional tensions, combined with ongoing diplomatic negotiations and economic pressures, shape trader assessments of any potential coup attempt or leadership shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,122,686 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
8%
$2,122,686 Vol.
31 dicembre
$81,460 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles in Iran have intensified following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including members of the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of advancing a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role while sidelining the supreme leader’s office, parliament, and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports from mid-August highlight a military junta consolidating authority, with new billboards in Tehran featuring IRGC-linked figures over traditional clerical symbols. Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned on August 17 of risks including coups and external infiltration. These factional tensions, combined with ongoing diplomatic negotiations and economic pressures, shape trader assessments of any potential coup attempt or leadership shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,686Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles in Iran have intensified following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including members of the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of advancing a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role while sidelining the supreme leader’s office, parliament, and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports from mid-August highlight a military junta consolidating authority, with new billboards in Tehran featuring IRGC-linked figures over traditional clerical symbols. Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned on August 17 of risks including coups and external infiltration. These factional tensions, combined with ongoing diplomatic negotiations and economic pressures, shape trader assessments of any potential coup attempt or leadership shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,686Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles in Iran have intensified following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including members of the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of advancing a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role while sidelining the supreme leader’s office, parliament, and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports from mid-August highlight a military junta consolidating authority, with new billboards in Tehran featuring IRGC-linked figures over traditional clerical symbols. Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned on August 17 of risks including coups and external infiltration. These factional tensions, combined with ongoing diplomatic negotiations and economic pressures, shape trader assessments of any potential coup attempt or leadership shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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