Despite ongoing economic pressures from sanctions, inflation, and wartime disruptions, Iranian authorities have reinforced internal security measures and prepared for potential unrest without signs of an imminent military challenge to leadership. The Revolutionary Guards and Supreme National Security Council have prioritized suppression of dissent and maintained control over key institutions, limiting factional splits from escalating into overt action. Past rumors of attempts earlier in 2026 remained unconfirmed and failed to produce measurable shifts in power. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show the regime's resilience through similar crises, with no verified primary-source evidence of coordinated plots emerging in recent weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,122,908 Vol.
$1,122,908 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,122,908 Vol.
$1,122,908 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing economic pressures from sanctions, inflation, and wartime disruptions, Iranian authorities have reinforced internal security measures and prepared for potential unrest without signs of an imminent military challenge to leadership. The Revolutionary Guards and Supreme National Security Council have prioritized suppression of dissent and maintained control over key institutions, limiting factional splits from escalating into overt action. Past rumors of attempts earlier in 2026 remained unconfirmed and failed to produce measurable shifts in power. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show the regime's resilience through similar crises, with no verified primary-source evidence of coordinated plots emerging in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,122,908Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing economic pressures from sanctions, inflation, and wartime disruptions, Iranian authorities have reinforced internal security measures and prepared for potential unrest without signs of an imminent military challenge to leadership. The Revolutionary Guards and Supreme National Security Council have prioritized suppression of dissent and maintained control over key institutions, limiting factional splits from escalating into overt action. Past rumors of attempts earlier in 2026 remained unconfirmed and failed to produce measurable shifts in power. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show the regime's resilience through similar crises, with no verified primary-source evidence of coordinated plots emerging in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,122,908Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing economic pressures from sanctions, inflation, and wartime disruptions, Iranian authorities have reinforced internal security measures and prepared for potential unrest without signs of an imminent military challenge to leadership. The Revolutionary Guards and Supreme National Security Council have prioritized suppression of dissent and maintained control over key institutions, limiting factional splits from escalating into overt action. Past rumors of attempts earlier in 2026 remained unconfirmed and failed to produce measurable shifts in power. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show the regime's resilience through similar crises, with no verified primary-source evidence of coordinated plots emerging in recent weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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