**Traders assign a 68% probability to “No” on new US sanctions on Iran by Monday (August 24, 2026), reflecting the distinction between announced plans and formal imposition.** US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on August 20 that Washington would apply “the toughest sanctions in history” as part of a “one-two punch” with the existing naval blockade, with President Trump issuing parallel warnings of “economic warfare” against any country providing Iran financial lifelines. Bessent scheduled a Monday press conference to release details. These statements occur against the backdrop of an ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, recent revocation of temporary sanctions waivers tied to the June 2026 Islamabad MOU, and sustained OFAC actions targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and oil networks. China, which purchases the majority of Iran’s exported oil, has rejected further sanctions in favor of diplomacy, while Iran has vowed a broad response. Implementation of comprehensive new sanctions typically involves OFAC designations, general licenses, or executive actions that require preparation beyond an initial announcement or press event. Traders therefore view the Monday timeline as more likely to feature outlines and threats than completed new measures, consistent with historical patterns where maximum-pressure campaigns build incrementally rather than through single-day actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato35% probabilità
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24 ago 2026
35% probabilità
NUOVO
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24 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 68% probability to “No” on new US sanctions on Iran by Monday (August 24, 2026), reflecting the distinction between announced plans and formal imposition.**
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on August 20 that Washington would apply “the toughest sanctions in history” as part of a “one-two punch” with the existing naval blockade, with President Trump issuing parallel warnings of “economic warfare” against any country providing Iran financial lifelines. Bessent scheduled a Monday press conference to release details. These statements occur against the backdrop of an ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, recent revocation of temporary sanctions waivers tied to the June 2026 Islamabad MOU, and sustained OFAC actions targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and oil networks.
China, which purchases the majority of Iran’s exported oil, has rejected further sanctions in favor of diplomacy, while Iran has vowed a broad response. Implementation of comprehensive new sanctions typically involves OFAC designations, general licenses, or executive actions that require preparation beyond an initial announcement or press event. Traders therefore view the Monday timeline as more likely to feature outlines and threats than completed new measures, consistent with historical patterns where maximum-pressure campaigns build incrementally rather than through single-day actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Volume
$234Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 68% probability to “No” on new US sanctions on Iran by Monday (August 24, 2026), reflecting the distinction between announced plans and formal imposition.**
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on August 20 that Washington would apply “the toughest sanctions in history” as part of a “one-two punch” with the existing naval blockade, with President Trump issuing parallel warnings of “economic warfare” against any country providing Iran financial lifelines. Bessent scheduled a Monday press conference to release details. These statements occur against the backdrop of an ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, recent revocation of temporary sanctions waivers tied to the June 2026 Islamabad MOU, and sustained OFAC actions targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and oil networks.
China, which purchases the majority of Iran’s exported oil, has rejected further sanctions in favor of diplomacy, while Iran has vowed a broad response. Implementation of comprehensive new sanctions typically involves OFAC designations, general licenses, or executive actions that require preparation beyond an initial announcement or press event. Traders therefore view the Monday timeline as more likely to feature outlines and threats than completed new measures, consistent with historical patterns where maximum-pressure campaigns build incrementally rather than through single-day actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$234Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 68% probability to “No” on new US sanctions on Iran by Monday (August 24, 2026), reflecting the distinction between announced plans and formal imposition.** US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on August 20 that Washington would apply “the toughest sanctions in history” as part of a “one-two punch” with the existing naval blockade, with President Trump issuing parallel warnings of “economic warfare” against any country providing Iran financial lifelines. Bessent scheduled a Monday press conference to release details. These statements occur against the backdrop of an ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, recent revocation of temporary sanctions waivers tied to the June 2026 Islamabad MOU, and sustained OFAC actions targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and oil networks. China, which purchases the majority of Iran’s exported oil, has rejected further sanctions in favor of diplomacy, while Iran has vowed a broad response. Implementation of comprehensive new sanctions typically involves OFAC designations, general licenses, or executive actions that require preparation beyond an initial announcement or press event. Traders therefore view the Monday timeline as more likely to feature outlines and threats than completed new measures, consistent with historical patterns where maximum-pressure campaigns build incrementally rather than through single-day actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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