The Department of Justice's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony has anchored trader sentiment at low single-digit implied probabilities for federal charges by year-end. Court rulings quashing subpoenas for lack of evidence, combined with the probe's origins in disputes over monetary policy independence, have eliminated near-term catalysts. With Powell continuing to lead FOMC communications and no new regulatory filings or congressional actions surfacing since spring, markets price in minimal risk of indictment through December 2026. Any reversal would require fresh DOJ leadership or documented misconduct emerging from ongoing oversight, but current trajectories favor resolution without charges.