Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show persistent subtropical ridging over Texas through midweek, supporting daytime highs near or above 100°F and overnight lows typically in the upper 70s, yet with notable spread in minimum temperature solutions for August 25. This uncertainty—driven by variable low-level moisture, possible weak frontal boundary timing, and differences between GFS and ECMWF outputs—explains why traders assign 35% implied probability to 69°F or below while clustering roughly 26% each around the 72–77°F range. Historical August climatology places Austin’s average low near 75°F, so any deviation hinges on whether steering patterns allow brief radiational cooling or increased cloud cover; next NWS forecast discussions and updated model cycles will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the overnight period.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Austin il 25 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Austin il 25 agosto?
88°F or higher 47%
69°F or below 35%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 ago 2026
69°F or below
35%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
5%
88°F or higher
47%
88°F or higher 47%
69°F or below 35%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 ago 2026
69°F or below
$12 Vol.
35%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$5 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
16%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
5%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show persistent subtropical ridging over Texas through midweek, supporting daytime highs near or above 100°F and overnight lows typically in the upper 70s, yet with notable spread in minimum temperature solutions for August 25. This uncertainty—driven by variable low-level moisture, possible weak frontal boundary timing, and differences between GFS and ECMWF outputs—explains why traders assign 35% implied probability to 69°F or below while clustering roughly 26% each around the 72–77°F range. Historical August climatology places Austin’s average low near 75°F, so any deviation hinges on whether steering patterns allow brief radiational cooling or increased cloud cover; next NWS forecast discussions and updated model cycles will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$32Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show persistent subtropical ridging over Texas through midweek, supporting daytime highs near or above 100°F and overnight lows typically in the upper 70s, yet with notable spread in minimum temperature solutions for August 25. This uncertainty—driven by variable low-level moisture, possible weak frontal boundary timing, and differences between GFS and ECMWF outputs—explains why traders assign 35% implied probability to 69°F or below while clustering roughly 26% each around the 72–77°F range. Historical August climatology places Austin’s average low near 75°F, so any deviation hinges on whether steering patterns allow brief radiational cooling or increased cloud cover; next NWS forecast discussions and updated model cycles will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show persistent subtropical ridging over Texas through midweek, supporting daytime highs near or above 100°F and overnight lows typically in the upper 70s, yet with notable spread in minimum temperature solutions for August 25. This uncertainty—driven by variable low-level moisture, possible weak frontal boundary timing, and differences between GFS and ECMWF outputs—explains why traders assign 35% implied probability to 69°F or below while clustering roughly 26% each around the 72–77°F range. Historical August climatology places Austin’s average low near 75°F, so any deviation hinges on whether steering patterns allow brief radiational cooling or increased cloud cover; next NWS forecast discussions and updated model cycles will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the overnight period.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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