Trader consensus in the Dallas minimum temperature market centers on 78–81°F for September 5, with combined market-implied odds near 78% for those two bins. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow under a strong ridge maintain elevated dew points and limit nocturnal cooling, while mostly clear skies allow modest radiational losses that still leave overnight lows well above seasonal normals. Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show minimal day-to-day variability through the weekend, with heat indices near 110°F reinforcing the warm-air mass. Slight downward shifts in some guidance could favor the 76–77°F outcome if boundary-layer mixing weakens overnight, though forecasters note high uncertainty in exact minimums given the humid environment. The next NWS forecast update and afternoon model runs will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any repricing.