Recent AEMET and model guidance point to clear skies and light winds overnight, enabling strong radiative cooling that has positioned 12–13°C as the market leaders at a combined 70% implied probability. Recent observations from Madrid stations recorded a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid a cooling trend, with dew points near 8–9°C and surface pressure around 1019–1021 hPa supporting further nocturnal drops under high-pressure dominance. Ensemble forecasts converge on overnight lows near 12–15°C, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps a small probability mass below 12°C. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour minimum from the Madrid reference station as the clear, dry conditions persist into the early morning hours.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 29 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 29 agosto?
12°C 53%
11°C or below 6%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
29 ago 2026
11°C or below
6%
12°C
53%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
12°C 53%
11°C or below 6%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
29 ago 2026
11°C or below
$174 Vol.
6%
12°C
$127 Vol.
53%
13°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$266 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$63 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$97 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$78 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$78 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and model guidance point to clear skies and light winds overnight, enabling strong radiative cooling that has positioned 12–13°C as the market leaders at a combined 70% implied probability. Recent observations from Madrid stations recorded a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid a cooling trend, with dew points near 8–9°C and surface pressure around 1019–1021 hPa supporting further nocturnal drops under high-pressure dominance. Ensemble forecasts converge on overnight lows near 12–15°C, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps a small probability mass below 12°C. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour minimum from the Madrid reference station as the clear, dry conditions persist into the early morning hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,524Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and model guidance point to clear skies and light winds overnight, enabling strong radiative cooling that has positioned 12–13°C as the market leaders at a combined 70% implied probability. Recent observations from Madrid stations recorded a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid a cooling trend, with dew points near 8–9°C and surface pressure around 1019–1021 hPa supporting further nocturnal drops under high-pressure dominance. Ensemble forecasts converge on overnight lows near 12–15°C, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps a small probability mass below 12°C. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour minimum from the Madrid reference station as the clear, dry conditions persist into the early morning hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,524Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and model guidance point to clear skies and light winds overnight, enabling strong radiative cooling that has positioned 12–13°C as the market leaders at a combined 70% implied probability. Recent observations from Madrid stations recorded a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid a cooling trend, with dew points near 8–9°C and surface pressure around 1019–1021 hPa supporting further nocturnal drops under high-pressure dominance. Ensemble forecasts converge on overnight lows near 12–15°C, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps a small probability mass below 12°C. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour minimum from the Madrid reference station as the clear, dry conditions persist into the early morning hours.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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