Recent cooling across central Spain, with Madrid recording a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid clear skies and light northerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward a cool night on the 30th. Forecasts from GFS and ECMWF guidance indicate overnight lows near 14–17°C under continued high pressure and minimal cloud cover, favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high around 30°C. Historical August 30 averages near 18°C and recent below-normal temperatures support the 57% market-implied probability for 13°C or below, though slight revisions in steering winds or dew points could raise the minimum. Updated agency briefings and final model runs in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 30 agosto?
13°C or below 55%
16°C 50%
14°C 34%
15°C 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ago 2026
13°C or below
55%
14°C
34%
15°C
27%
16°C
50%
17°C
16%
18°C
15%
19°C
14%
20°C
7%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
4%
13°C or below 55%
16°C 50%
14°C 34%
15°C 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ago 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
55%
14°C
$0 Vol.
34%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
16%
18°C
$0 Vol.
15%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
7%
21°C
$5 Vol.
6%
22°C
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$265 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling across central Spain, with Madrid recording a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid clear skies and light northerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward a cool night on the 30th. Forecasts from GFS and ECMWF guidance indicate overnight lows near 14–17°C under continued high pressure and minimal cloud cover, favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high around 30°C. Historical August 30 averages near 18°C and recent below-normal temperatures support the 57% market-implied probability for 13°C or below, though slight revisions in steering winds or dew points could raise the minimum. Updated agency briefings and final model runs in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$275Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling across central Spain, with Madrid recording a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid clear skies and light northerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward a cool night on the 30th. Forecasts from GFS and ECMWF guidance indicate overnight lows near 14–17°C under continued high pressure and minimal cloud cover, favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high around 30°C. Historical August 30 averages near 18°C and recent below-normal temperatures support the 57% market-implied probability for 13°C or below, though slight revisions in steering winds or dew points could raise the minimum. Updated agency briefings and final model runs in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$275Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling across central Spain, with Madrid recording a 12.4°C minimum on August 28 amid clear skies and light northerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward a cool night on the 30th. Forecasts from GFS and ECMWF guidance indicate overnight lows near 14–17°C under continued high pressure and minimal cloud cover, favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high around 30°C. Historical August 30 averages near 18°C and recent below-normal temperatures support the 57% market-implied probability for 13°C or below, though slight revisions in steering winds or dew points could raise the minimum. Updated agency briefings and final model runs in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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