**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C low for Shanghai on August 13, with 64.5% implied probability, followed by 27°C (23.5%) and 25°C (12.5%).** Short-range ensemble forecasts from regional models indicate overnight minima will likely settle in the 24–27°C range amid persistent subtropical moisture, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that restrict radiative cooling. High humidity—typical for mid-August in the Yangtze River Delta—narrows the diurnal temperature range by trapping heat near the surface, while any late-day precipitation further moderates the minimum. Climatological baselines place average August lows near 25°C under similar synoptic patterns, and current conditions show no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative window that would push readings lower. Model spread remains modest, with timing differences in cloud breaks or shower intensity able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Updated runs ahead of the overnight period will refine this range, keeping the tight clustering around 26°C as the dominant outcome in the market.