Mexico’s weak Q1 2026 GDP print, which contracted 0.8% quarter-over-quarter after a 0.9% gain in Q4 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the current quarter amid broad-based softness in industry and services. This leaves the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth bands nearly tied in market-implied odds, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of any rebound. Key swing factors include resilient U.S. demand for Mexican exports, gradual recovery in formal employment, and potential support from domestic consumption, tempered by tariff-related headwinds and a negative statistical carryover. Government forecasts continue to target 1.8-2.8% annual growth for 2026, while the next INEGI release in late July will clarify whether momentum is accelerating toward the higher range or remaining subdued.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0,5-0,0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 42%
1.0-1.5% 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 lug 2026
<-0,5%
25%
-0,5-0,0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
46%
0.5-1.0%
27%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
42%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0,5-0,0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 42%
1.0-1.5% 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 lug 2026
<-0,5%
$4 Vol.
25%
-0,5-0,0%
$24 Vol.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Vol.
46%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Vol.
27%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Vol.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
42%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s weak Q1 2026 GDP print, which contracted 0.8% quarter-over-quarter after a 0.9% gain in Q4 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the current quarter amid broad-based softness in industry and services. This leaves the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth bands nearly tied in market-implied odds, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of any rebound. Key swing factors include resilient U.S. demand for Mexican exports, gradual recovery in formal employment, and potential support from domestic consumption, tempered by tariff-related headwinds and a negative statistical carryover. Government forecasts continue to target 1.8-2.8% annual growth for 2026, while the next INEGI release in late July will clarify whether momentum is accelerating toward the higher range or remaining subdued.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$47Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s weak Q1 2026 GDP print, which contracted 0.8% quarter-over-quarter after a 0.9% gain in Q4 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the current quarter amid broad-based softness in industry and services. This leaves the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth bands nearly tied in market-implied odds, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of any rebound. Key swing factors include resilient U.S. demand for Mexican exports, gradual recovery in formal employment, and potential support from domestic consumption, tempered by tariff-related headwinds and a negative statistical carryover. Government forecasts continue to target 1.8-2.8% annual growth for 2026, while the next INEGI release in late July will clarify whether momentum is accelerating toward the higher range or remaining subdued.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s weak Q1 2026 GDP print, which contracted 0.8% quarter-over-quarter after a 0.9% gain in Q4 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the current quarter amid broad-based softness in industry and services. This leaves the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth bands nearly tied in market-implied odds, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of any rebound. Key swing factors include resilient U.S. demand for Mexican exports, gradual recovery in formal employment, and potential support from domestic consumption, tempered by tariff-related headwinds and a negative statistical carryover. Government forecasts continue to target 1.8-2.8% annual growth for 2026, while the next INEGI release in late July will clarify whether momentum is accelerating toward the higher range or remaining subdued.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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