Recent polling has tightened the Quebec race entering the October 5 election, with the PQ holding a narrow or tied lead over the CAQ in late August surveys amid a CAQ surge of seven points in one pollster’s tracking. Seat models place the PQ near 48 projected seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting volatility in francophone-heavy ridings where the two parties compete directly. The PQ benefits from concentrated support among francophone voters and strong vote efficiency, yet CAQ gains among women and older voters, combined with federalist vote fragmentation across the Liberals, Conservatives, and CAQ, limit the PQ’s path to higher seat totals. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States have also factored into early campaign dynamics, potentially aiding the governing party’s positioning. These factors keep trader consensus centered on outcomes near or below 50 seats rather than a majority.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato50-54 28%
<50 27%
55-59 14%
70-74 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
<50
27%
50-54
28%
55-59
14%
60-64
8%
65-69
11%
70-74
11%
75-79
3%
80+
4%
50-54 28%
<50 27%
55-59 14%
70-74 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
<50
$1,059 Vol.
27%
50-54
$920 Vol.
28%
55-59
$423 Vol.
14%
60-64
$775 Vol.
8%
65-69
$2,484 Vol.
11%
70-74
$1,706 Vol.
11%
75-79
$953 Vol.
3%
80+
$839 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling has tightened the Quebec race entering the October 5 election, with the PQ holding a narrow or tied lead over the CAQ in late August surveys amid a CAQ surge of seven points in one pollster’s tracking. Seat models place the PQ near 48 projected seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting volatility in francophone-heavy ridings where the two parties compete directly. The PQ benefits from concentrated support among francophone voters and strong vote efficiency, yet CAQ gains among women and older voters, combined with federalist vote fragmentation across the Liberals, Conservatives, and CAQ, limit the PQ’s path to higher seat totals. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States have also factored into early campaign dynamics, potentially aiding the governing party’s positioning. These factors keep trader consensus centered on outcomes near or below 50 seats rather than a majority.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$9,158Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling has tightened the Quebec race entering the October 5 election, with the PQ holding a narrow or tied lead over the CAQ in late August surveys amid a CAQ surge of seven points in one pollster’s tracking. Seat models place the PQ near 48 projected seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting volatility in francophone-heavy ridings where the two parties compete directly. The PQ benefits from concentrated support among francophone voters and strong vote efficiency, yet CAQ gains among women and older voters, combined with federalist vote fragmentation across the Liberals, Conservatives, and CAQ, limit the PQ’s path to higher seat totals. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States have also factored into early campaign dynamics, potentially aiding the governing party’s positioning. These factors keep trader consensus centered on outcomes near or below 50 seats rather than a majority.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$9,158Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling has tightened the Quebec race entering the October 5 election, with the PQ holding a narrow or tied lead over the CAQ in late August surveys amid a CAQ surge of seven points in one pollster’s tracking. Seat models place the PQ near 48 projected seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting volatility in francophone-heavy ridings where the two parties compete directly. The PQ benefits from concentrated support among francophone voters and strong vote efficiency, yet CAQ gains among women and older voters, combined with federalist vote fragmentation across the Liberals, Conservatives, and CAQ, limit the PQ’s path to higher seat totals. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States have also factored into early campaign dynamics, potentially aiding the governing party’s positioning. These factors keep trader consensus centered on outcomes near or below 50 seats rather than a majority.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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