Trader consensus on OpenAI's IPO timeline reflects growing skepticism about a 2026 debut, driven by recent reports of missed revenue targets and heavy financial commitments that could push any listing into 2027. The company recently closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, yet ongoing legal battles, including with Elon Musk, and CFO Sarah Friar's comments on operational unreadiness for public markets have tempered expectations for rapid progress. These factors reinforce the dominant market-implied odds against an IPO by year-end, while any potential listing would likely target a valuation near or above $1 trillion given OpenAI's leadership in large language model development and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic. Upcoming catalysts include further funding updates or regulatory filings that could clarify timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 68%
1,5T+ 8.9%
500–750 miliardi 4.0%
1,25 T–1,5 T 3.7%
$1,639,104 Vol.
$1,639,104 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
1%
500–750 miliardi
4%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
2%
1T–1,25T
3%
1,25 T–1,5 T
4%
1,5T+
9%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
68%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 68%
1,5T+ 8.9%
500–750 miliardi 4.0%
1,25 T–1,5 T 3.7%
$1,639,104 Vol.
$1,639,104 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
$266,182 Vol.
1%
500–750 miliardi
$146,369 Vol.
4%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
$141,057 Vol.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,709 Vol.
3%
1,25 T–1,5 T
$496,547 Vol.
4%
1,5T+
$101,042 Vol.
9%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
$305,198 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on OpenAI's IPO timeline reflects growing skepticism about a 2026 debut, driven by recent reports of missed revenue targets and heavy financial commitments that could push any listing into 2027. The company recently closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, yet ongoing legal battles, including with Elon Musk, and CFO Sarah Friar's comments on operational unreadiness for public markets have tempered expectations for rapid progress. These factors reinforce the dominant market-implied odds against an IPO by year-end, while any potential listing would likely target a valuation near or above $1 trillion given OpenAI's leadership in large language model development and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic. Upcoming catalysts include further funding updates or regulatory filings that could clarify timelines.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,639,104Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on OpenAI's IPO timeline reflects growing skepticism about a 2026 debut, driven by recent reports of missed revenue targets and heavy financial commitments that could push any listing into 2027. The company recently closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, yet ongoing legal battles, including with Elon Musk, and CFO Sarah Friar's comments on operational unreadiness for public markets have tempered expectations for rapid progress. These factors reinforce the dominant market-implied odds against an IPO by year-end, while any potential listing would likely target a valuation near or above $1 trillion given OpenAI's leadership in large language model development and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic. Upcoming catalysts include further funding updates or regulatory filings that could clarify timelines.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,639,104Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on OpenAI's IPO timeline reflects growing skepticism about a 2026 debut, driven by recent reports of missed revenue targets and heavy financial commitments that could push any listing into 2027. The company recently closed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, yet ongoing legal battles, including with Elon Musk, and CFO Sarah Friar's comments on operational unreadiness for public markets have tempered expectations for rapid progress. These factors reinforce the dominant market-implied odds against an IPO by year-end, while any potential listing would likely target a valuation near or above $1 trillion given OpenAI's leadership in large language model development and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic. Upcoming catalysts include further funding updates or regulatory filings that could clarify timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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