Trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall centers on the Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal outlook favoring near-normal totals, consistent with historical averages of roughly 430-500 mm during peak typhoon season. Frequent afternoon thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon and upper-air disturbances have delivered steady accumulations so far, yet model consensus points to limited intensification risks through late August. With roughly two weeks remaining, variability in tropical cyclone tracks and localized convective bursts creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, keeping leading market-implied odds tightly clustered near or slightly below the climatological baseline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 42%
650-700mm 34%
475-500mm 32.2%
600-650mm 30.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
<425mm
33%
425-450mm
11%
450-475mm
29%
475-500mm
19%
500-525mm
22%
525-550mm
27%
550-600mm
22%
600-650mm
18%
650-700mm
25%
700mm+
15%
<425mm 42%
650-700mm 34%
475-500mm 32.2%
600-650mm 30.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
<425mm
$2,786 Vol.
33%
425-450mm
$251 Vol.
11%
450-475mm
$180 Vol.
29%
475-500mm
$285 Vol.
19%
500-525mm
$149 Vol.
22%
525-550mm
$199 Vol.
27%
550-600mm
$164 Vol.
22%
600-650mm
$280 Vol.
18%
650-700mm
$236 Vol.
25%
700mm+
$1,722 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall centers on the Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal outlook favoring near-normal totals, consistent with historical averages of roughly 430-500 mm during peak typhoon season. Frequent afternoon thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon and upper-air disturbances have delivered steady accumulations so far, yet model consensus points to limited intensification risks through late August. With roughly two weeks remaining, variability in tropical cyclone tracks and localized convective bursts creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, keeping leading market-implied odds tightly clustered near or slightly below the climatological baseline.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$6,251Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall centers on the Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal outlook favoring near-normal totals, consistent with historical averages of roughly 430-500 mm during peak typhoon season. Frequent afternoon thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon and upper-air disturbances have delivered steady accumulations so far, yet model consensus points to limited intensification risks through late August. With roughly two weeks remaining, variability in tropical cyclone tracks and localized convective bursts creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, keeping leading market-implied odds tightly clustered near or slightly below the climatological baseline.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,251Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall centers on the Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal outlook favoring near-normal totals, consistent with historical averages of roughly 430-500 mm during peak typhoon season. Frequent afternoon thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon and upper-air disturbances have delivered steady accumulations so far, yet model consensus points to limited intensification risks through late August. With roughly two weeks remaining, variability in tropical cyclone tracks and localized convective bursts creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, keeping leading market-implied odds tightly clustered near or slightly below the climatological baseline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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