SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing in April 2026 and reports targeting a June Nasdaq listing at more than $2 trillion valuation form the core driver behind the market’s 66% implied probability for a 2.0T+ closing market cap. The company’s February merger with xAI created a combined entity valued at roughly $1.25 trillion while Starlink’s subscriber base and profitability continue scaling rapidly alongside record Falcon and Starship launch cadence. Traders appear to be pricing in strong demand for the planned $70–75 billion raise, supported by historical precedent for oversubscribed mega-IPOs and the firm’s track record of exceeding private-market valuations. Key near-term catalysts include the expected public prospectus release and final pricing decisions, which could still shift outcomes if regulatory scrutiny or market conditions introduce last-minute adjustments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO SpaceX (strike inferiori)
Capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO SpaceX (strike inferiori)
Oltre 2,0T 67%
1,8T–2,0T 13%
1,6T–1,8T 8.0%
1,4T–1,6T 4.7%
$960,161 Vol.
$960,161 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Nessuna IPO prima del 2028
1%
<1,0T
3%
1,0T–1,2T
2%
1,2T–1,4T
3%
1,4T–1,6T
5%
1,6T–1,8T
8%
1,8T–2,0T
13%
Oltre 2,0T
67%
Oltre 2,0T 67%
1,8T–2,0T 13%
1,6T–1,8T 8.0%
1,4T–1,6T 4.7%
$960,161 Vol.
$960,161 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Nessuna IPO prima del 2028
$194,515 Vol.
1%
<1,0T
$77,717 Vol.
3%
1,0T–1,2T
$54,418 Vol.
2%
1,2T–1,4T
$71,750 Vol.
3%
1,4T–1,6T
$116,612 Vol.
5%
1,6T–1,8T
$119,558 Vol.
8%
1,8T–2,0T
$107,199 Vol.
13%
Oltre 2,0T
$218,392 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing in April 2026 and reports targeting a June Nasdaq listing at more than $2 trillion valuation form the core driver behind the market’s 66% implied probability for a 2.0T+ closing market cap. The company’s February merger with xAI created a combined entity valued at roughly $1.25 trillion while Starlink’s subscriber base and profitability continue scaling rapidly alongside record Falcon and Starship launch cadence. Traders appear to be pricing in strong demand for the planned $70–75 billion raise, supported by historical precedent for oversubscribed mega-IPOs and the firm’s track record of exceeding private-market valuations. Key near-term catalysts include the expected public prospectus release and final pricing decisions, which could still shift outcomes if regulatory scrutiny or market conditions introduce last-minute adjustments.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Volume
$960,161Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing in April 2026 and reports targeting a June Nasdaq listing at more than $2 trillion valuation form the core driver behind the market’s 66% implied probability for a 2.0T+ closing market cap. The company’s February merger with xAI created a combined entity valued at roughly $1.25 trillion while Starlink’s subscriber base and profitability continue scaling rapidly alongside record Falcon and Starship launch cadence. Traders appear to be pricing in strong demand for the planned $70–75 billion raise, supported by historical precedent for oversubscribed mega-IPOs and the firm’s track record of exceeding private-market valuations. Key near-term catalysts include the expected public prospectus release and final pricing decisions, which could still shift outcomes if regulatory scrutiny or market conditions introduce last-minute adjustments.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$960,161Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing in April 2026 and reports targeting a June Nasdaq listing at more than $2 trillion valuation form the core driver behind the market’s 66% implied probability for a 2.0T+ closing market cap. The company’s February merger with xAI created a combined entity valued at roughly $1.25 trillion while Starlink’s subscriber base and profitability continue scaling rapidly alongside record Falcon and Starship launch cadence. Traders appear to be pricing in strong demand for the planned $70–75 billion raise, supported by historical precedent for oversubscribed mega-IPOs and the firm’s track record of exceeding private-market valuations. Key near-term catalysts include the expected public prospectus release and final pricing decisions, which could still shift outcomes if regulatory scrutiny or market conditions introduce last-minute adjustments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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