SpaceX completed its record $75 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its existing inclusion criteria, requiring at least 12 months of public trading, four quarters of positive U.S. GAAP earnings, and a minimum 10% free float. These hurdles place any potential addition no earlier than mid-2027, driving the market-implied odds of 2026 inclusion to just 5.1% for “Yes.” While a sudden rule change or accelerated profitability could theoretically accelerate eligibility, the committee’s recent decision against a mega-cap exception leaves limited scope for a 2026 resolution. Trader capital has coalesced around these structural barriers rather than speculation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$20,975 Vol.
$20,975 Vol.
1 gen 2027
Sì
5% probabilità
$20,975 Vol.
$20,975 Vol.
1 gen 2027
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $75 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its existing inclusion criteria, requiring at least 12 months of public trading, four quarters of positive U.S. GAAP earnings, and a minimum 10% free float. These hurdles place any potential addition no earlier than mid-2027, driving the market-implied odds of 2026 inclusion to just 5.1% for “Yes.” While a sudden rule change or accelerated profitability could theoretically accelerate eligibility, the committee’s recent decision against a mega-cap exception leaves limited scope for a 2026 resolution. Trader capital has coalesced around these structural barriers rather than speculation.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Mercato aperto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$20,975Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $75 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its existing inclusion criteria, requiring at least 12 months of public trading, four quarters of positive U.S. GAAP earnings, and a minimum 10% free float. These hurdles place any potential addition no earlier than mid-2027, driving the market-implied odds of 2026 inclusion to just 5.1% for “Yes.” While a sudden rule change or accelerated profitability could theoretically accelerate eligibility, the committee’s recent decision against a mega-cap exception leaves limited scope for a 2026 resolution. Trader capital has coalesced around these structural barriers rather than speculation.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$20,975Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX completed its record $75 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its existing inclusion criteria, requiring at least 12 months of public trading, four quarters of positive U.S. GAAP earnings, and a minimum 10% free float. These hurdles place any potential addition no earlier than mid-2027, driving the market-implied odds of 2026 inclusion to just 5.1% for “Yes.” While a sudden rule change or accelerated profitability could theoretically accelerate eligibility, the committee’s recent decision against a mega-cap exception leaves limited scope for a 2026 resolution. Trader capital has coalesced around these structural barriers rather than speculation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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