Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
7%
500–600 miliardi
6%
600–700 miliardi
5%
700–800 miliardi
8%
800–900 miliardi
44%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
36%
1T–1,1T
9%
1,1T+
5%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600 miliardi
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 miliardi
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800 miliardi
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900 miliardi
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
$971 Vol.
36%
1T–1,1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,985Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,985Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti