US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare USA-Cuba nel 2026?
Scontro militare USA-Cuba nel 2026?
16% probabilità
$242,125 Vol.
$242,125 Vol.
31 dic 2026
16% probabilità
$242,125 Vol.
$242,125 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$242,125Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$242,125Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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