Trader consensus on Kīlauea Episode 53 beginning August 11–12 reflects Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of precursory signals, including gradual increases in spatter from the north vent, short-lived lava overflows, and a shift to deflationary tilt that preceded sustained fountaining at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12. These indicators, consistent with prior episodes, allowed real-time assessment of magma pressure buildup and vent dynamics within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The 96.4% market-implied probability demonstrates how geophysical data from tiltmeters, seismometers, and visual observations create a narrow window for onset. A realistic challenge would arise from revised definitions of “begin,” such as distinguishing initial spatter from fully developed fountains, or from delayed official confirmation if activity had waned before meeting episode criteria.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuando inizierà l'Episodio 53 di Kīlauea?
Quando inizierà l'Episodio 53 di Kīlauea?
11-12 ago 100.0%
8 agosto o prima <1%
9-10 agosto <1%
13 agosto o dopo <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
8 agosto o prima
<1%
9-10 agosto
<1%
11-12 ago
100%
13 agosto o dopo
<1%
11-12 ago 100.0%
8 agosto o prima <1%
9-10 agosto <1%
13 agosto o dopo <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
8 agosto o prima
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
9-10 agosto
$2,167 Vol.
<1%
11-12 ago
$3,471 Vol.
100%
13 agosto o dopo
$2,317 Vol.
<1%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Trader consensus on Kīlauea Episode 53 beginning August 11–12 reflects Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of precursory signals, including gradual increases in spatter from the north vent, short-lived lava overflows, and a shift to deflationary tilt that preceded sustained fountaining at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12. These indicators, consistent with prior episodes, allowed real-time assessment of magma pressure buildup and vent dynamics within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The 96.4% market-implied probability demonstrates how geophysical data from tiltmeters, seismometers, and visual observations create a narrow window for onset. A realistic challenge would arise from revised definitions of “begin,” such as distinguishing initial spatter from fully developed fountains, or from delayed official confirmation if activity had waned before meeting episode criteria.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$9,296Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Trader consensus on Kīlauea Episode 53 beginning August 11–12 reflects Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of precursory signals, including gradual increases in spatter from the north vent, short-lived lava overflows, and a shift to deflationary tilt that preceded sustained fountaining at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12. These indicators, consistent with prior episodes, allowed real-time assessment of magma pressure buildup and vent dynamics within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The 96.4% market-implied probability demonstrates how geophysical data from tiltmeters, seismometers, and visual observations create a narrow window for onset. A realistic challenge would arise from revised definitions of “begin,” such as distinguishing initial spatter from fully developed fountains, or from delayed official confirmation if activity had waned before meeting episode criteria.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$9,296Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Kīlauea Episode 53 beginning August 11–12 reflects Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of precursory signals, including gradual increases in spatter from the north vent, short-lived lava overflows, and a shift to deflationary tilt that preceded sustained fountaining at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12. These indicators, consistent with prior episodes, allowed real-time assessment of magma pressure buildup and vent dynamics within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The 96.4% market-implied probability demonstrates how geophysical data from tiltmeters, seismometers, and visual observations create a narrow window for onset. A realistic challenge would arise from revised definitions of “begin,” such as distinguishing initial spatter from fully developed fountains, or from delayed official confirmation if activity had waned before meeting episode criteria.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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