Traders assign an 87% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake striking California in 2026, reflecting the low annual odds for such events on major faults like the San Andreas. USGS data show only moderate activity this year, including a 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller events, with no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Long-term UCERF3 models estimate roughly one M6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide, while M7+ occurrences align with multi-decade recurrence intervals. A recent August 2026 study highlighting elevated fault stresses supports greater long-term risk but does not alter 2026 probabilities given the elapsed months without triggering conditions. Resolution depends on official USGS magnitude and location verification through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa California subirà un terremoto di magnitudo 7,0 o superiore nel 2026?
La California subirà un terremoto di magnitudo 7,0 o superiore nel 2026?
14% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 gen 2027
14% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 gen 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake striking California in 2026, reflecting the low annual odds for such events on major faults like the San Andreas. USGS data show only moderate activity this year, including a 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller events, with no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Long-term UCERF3 models estimate roughly one M6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide, while M7+ occurrences align with multi-decade recurrence intervals. A recent August 2026 study highlighting elevated fault stresses supports greater long-term risk but does not alter 2026 probabilities given the elapsed months without triggering conditions. Resolution depends on official USGS magnitude and location verification through year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$3,806Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake striking California in 2026, reflecting the low annual odds for such events on major faults like the San Andreas. USGS data show only moderate activity this year, including a 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller events, with no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Long-term UCERF3 models estimate roughly one M6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide, while M7+ occurrences align with multi-decade recurrence intervals. A recent August 2026 study highlighting elevated fault stresses supports greater long-term risk but does not alter 2026 probabilities given the elapsed months without triggering conditions. Resolution depends on official USGS magnitude and location verification through year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$3,806Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 87% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake striking California in 2026, reflecting the low annual odds for such events on major faults like the San Andreas. USGS data show only moderate activity this year, including a 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller events, with no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals indicating imminent rupture. Long-term UCERF3 models estimate roughly one M6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide, while M7+ occurrences align with multi-decade recurrence intervals. A recent August 2026 study highlighting elevated fault stresses supports greater long-term risk but does not alter 2026 probabilities given the elapsed months without triggering conditions. Resolution depends on official USGS magnitude and location verification through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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