Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistical buildup required for such an operation within the narrow remaining window. Beijing continues gray-zone coercion through record coast guard and government vessel activity around the island, incremental maritime assertions east of Taiwan, and routine military flights, consistent with a strategy of de facto pressure rather than imminent kinetic unification. Recent analyses note ongoing PLA command disruptions from purges, alongside U.S.-China diplomatic engagement that has kept tensions below acute thresholds. While a sudden blockade or limited escalation remains theoretically possible if Taipei crosses core red lines, no confirmed indicators of the massed forces, sealift, or surprise posture needed for a full invasion have emerged in the past month.