The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Missione Lunare Doge-1 partirà prima del 2027?
La Missione Lunare Doge-1 partirà prima del 2027?
Sì
$800,697 Vol.
$800,697 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$800,697 Vol.
$800,697 Vol.
31 dic 2026
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$800,697Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$800,697Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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