The near-certain trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience through 2025-2026 conflicts, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, and widespread protests. Security institutions have shown cohesion with limited defections, enabling rapid transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and nationalist consolidation despite economic strain, sanctions, and military setbacks. Recent September diplomatic mediation efforts and threats of escalation further signal ongoing institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden U.S. or Israeli strikes triggering rapid internal fragmentation or elite defections could theoretically shift outcomes, such developments remain highly unlikely within days absent verified triggers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
<1% probabilità
$2,438,972 Vol.
$2,438,972 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$2,438,972 Vol.
$2,438,972 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience through 2025-2026 conflicts, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, and widespread protests. Security institutions have shown cohesion with limited defections, enabling rapid transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and nationalist consolidation despite economic strain, sanctions, and military setbacks. Recent September diplomatic mediation efforts and threats of escalation further signal ongoing institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden U.S. or Israeli strikes triggering rapid internal fragmentation or elite defections could theoretically shift outcomes, such developments remain highly unlikely within days absent verified triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,438,972Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience through 2025-2026 conflicts, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, and widespread protests. Security institutions have shown cohesion with limited defections, enabling rapid transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and nationalist consolidation despite economic strain, sanctions, and military setbacks. Recent September diplomatic mediation efforts and threats of escalation further signal ongoing institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden U.S. or Israeli strikes triggering rapid internal fragmentation or elite defections could theoretically shift outcomes, such developments remain highly unlikely within days absent verified triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,438,972Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience through 2025-2026 conflicts, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, and widespread protests. Security institutions have shown cohesion with limited defections, enabling rapid transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and nationalist consolidation despite economic strain, sanctions, and military setbacks. Recent September diplomatic mediation efforts and threats of escalation further signal ongoing institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden U.S. or Israeli strikes triggering rapid internal fragmentation or elite defections could theoretically shift outcomes, such developments remain highly unlikely within days absent verified triggers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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