Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks shows no near-Earth objects large enough for a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for “No.” Recent fireballs and meteorite falls in 2026 remained far below megaton scale and were detected well in advance, confirming survey reliability. Statistically, such an impact occurs only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty rests on the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid discovered late in its approach, though expanding detection networks and ongoing cataloging make a surprise before year-end increasingly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$116,343 Vol.
$116,343 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
2% 確率
$116,343 Vol.
$116,343 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks shows no near-Earth objects large enough for a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for “No.” Recent fireballs and meteorite falls in 2026 remained far below megaton scale and were detected well in advance, confirming survey reliability. Statistically, such an impact occurs only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty rests on the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid discovered late in its approach, though expanding detection networks and ongoing cataloging make a surprise before year-end increasingly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$116,343終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks shows no near-Earth objects large enough for a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for “No.” Recent fireballs and meteorite falls in 2026 remained far below megaton scale and were detected well in advance, confirming survey reliability. Statistically, such an impact occurs only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty rests on the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid discovered late in its approach, though expanding detection networks and ongoing cataloging make a surprise before year-end increasingly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$116,343終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks shows no near-Earth objects large enough for a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for “No.” Recent fireballs and meteorite falls in 2026 remained far below megaton scale and were detected well in advance, confirming survey reliability. Statistically, such an impact occurs only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty rests on the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid discovered late in its approach, though expanding detection networks and ongoing cataloging make a surprise before year-end increasingly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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