In the wake of longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's high-profile floor crossing to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—which brought the minority government to one seat shy of a majority—traders are closely watching for the next defection amid ongoing Conservative caucus tensions under leader Pierre Poilievre. This marks the fifth such switch from Conservatives in recent months, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignments, though no new crossings have occurred in the past month despite rumors and a hot-mic incident involving MP Billy Morin rejecting overtures. Floor crossings remain legally permissible without triggering by-elections, sparking debates on parliamentary legitimacy, with upcoming byelections in Quebec and potential Liberal policy conventions as key catalysts that could prompt further shifts or stabilize the caucus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/06/30
May 15
4%
May 31
19%
$505 Vol.
May 15
$86 Vol.
4%
May 31
$241 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.In the wake of longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's high-profile floor crossing to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—which brought the minority government to one seat shy of a majority—traders are closely watching for the next defection amid ongoing Conservative caucus tensions under leader Pierre Poilievre. This marks the fifth such switch from Conservatives in recent months, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignments, though no new crossings have occurred in the past month despite rumors and a hot-mic incident involving MP Billy Morin rejecting overtures. Floor crossings remain legally permissible without triggering by-elections, sparking debates on parliamentary legitimacy, with upcoming byelections in Quebec and potential Liberal policy conventions as key catalysts that could prompt further shifts or stabilize the caucus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
音量
$505終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.In the wake of longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's high-profile floor crossing to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—which brought the minority government to one seat shy of a majority—traders are closely watching for the next defection amid ongoing Conservative caucus tensions under leader Pierre Poilievre. This marks the fifth such switch from Conservatives in recent months, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignments, though no new crossings have occurred in the past month despite rumors and a hot-mic incident involving MP Billy Morin rejecting overtures. Floor crossings remain legally permissible without triggering by-elections, sparking debates on parliamentary legitimacy, with upcoming byelections in Quebec and potential Liberal policy conventions as key catalysts that could prompt further shifts or stabilize the caucus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$505終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the wake of longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's high-profile floor crossing to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—which brought the minority government to one seat shy of a majority—traders are closely watching for the next defection amid ongoing Conservative caucus tensions under leader Pierre Poilievre. This marks the fifth such switch from Conservatives in recent months, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignments, though no new crossings have occurred in the past month despite rumors and a hot-mic incident involving MP Billy Morin rejecting overtures. Floor crossings remain legally permissible without triggering by-elections, sparking debates on parliamentary legitimacy, with upcoming byelections in Quebec and potential Liberal policy conventions as key catalysts that could prompt further shifts or stabilize the caucus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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