Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that no US state legislature will vote on secession by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because no active bills, committee referrals, or floor schedules on the topic appear in any state legislative calendar. Structural requirements such as supermajority thresholds, bicameral passage, and gubernatorial involvement create high procedural barriers, while recent sessions have focused on standard appropriations, redistricting, and policy priorities rather than sovereignty measures. Historical patterns show secession discussions confined to advocacy organizations without crossing into formal legislative action. Late-session surprises in states with past fringe interest remain theoretically possible before the deadline, though none are currently under consideration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年6月30日までにアメリカ合衆国の州議会が分離独立に投票することはありますか？
2026年6月30日までにアメリカ合衆国の州議会が分離独立に投票することはありますか？
はい
$28,234 Vol.
$28,234 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$28,234 Vol.
$28,234 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that no US state legislature will vote on secession by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because no active bills, committee referrals, or floor schedules on the topic appear in any state legislative calendar. Structural requirements such as supermajority thresholds, bicameral passage, and gubernatorial involvement create high procedural barriers, while recent sessions have focused on standard appropriations, redistricting, and policy priorities rather than sovereignty measures. Historical patterns show secession discussions confined to advocacy organizations without crossing into formal legislative action. Late-session surprises in states with past fringe interest remain theoretically possible before the deadline, though none are currently under consideration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
音量
$28,234終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that no US state legislature will vote on secession by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because no active bills, committee referrals, or floor schedules on the topic appear in any state legislative calendar. Structural requirements such as supermajority thresholds, bicameral passage, and gubernatorial involvement create high procedural barriers, while recent sessions have focused on standard appropriations, redistricting, and policy priorities rather than sovereignty measures. Historical patterns show secession discussions confined to advocacy organizations without crossing into formal legislative action. Late-session surprises in states with past fringe interest remain theoretically possible before the deadline, though none are currently under consideration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$28,234終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that no US state legislature will vote on secession by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because no active bills, committee referrals, or floor schedules on the topic appear in any state legislative calendar. Structural requirements such as supermajority thresholds, bicameral passage, and gubernatorial involvement create high procedural barriers, while recent sessions have focused on standard appropriations, redistricting, and policy priorities rather than sovereignty measures. Historical patterns show secession discussions confined to advocacy organizations without crossing into formal legislative action. Late-session surprises in states with past fringe interest remain theoretically possible before the deadline, though none are currently under consideration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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