Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026, primary and faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in the November general election for Arizona's 4th congressional district. The district, encompassing suburban areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has shown consistent Democratic leanings in recent cycles, with Stanton winning reelection in 2024 by a comfortable margin. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting structural advantages such as incumbency, fundraising strength, and limited Republican competitive signals in primaries. Trader consensus at 93% for Democrats aligns with these factors, while the low Republican probability stems from historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle national trends, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,232 Vol.
$32,232 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$32,232 Vol.
$32,232 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$25,393 Vol.
93%
共和党
$6,839 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026, primary and faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in the November general election for Arizona's 4th congressional district. The district, encompassing suburban areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has shown consistent Democratic leanings in recent cycles, with Stanton winning reelection in 2024 by a comfortable margin. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting structural advantages such as incumbency, fundraising strength, and limited Republican competitive signals in primaries. Trader consensus at 93% for Democrats aligns with these factors, while the low Republican probability stems from historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle national trends, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$32,232終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026, primary and faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in the November general election for Arizona's 4th congressional district. The district, encompassing suburban areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has shown consistent Democratic leanings in recent cycles, with Stanton winning reelection in 2024 by a comfortable margin. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting structural advantages such as incumbency, fundraising strength, and limited Republican competitive signals in primaries. Trader consensus at 93% for Democrats aligns with these factors, while the low Republican probability stems from historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle national trends, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,232終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026, primary and faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in the November general election for Arizona's 4th congressional district. The district, encompassing suburban areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has shown consistent Democratic leanings in recent cycles, with Stanton winning reelection in 2024 by a comfortable margin. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting structural advantages such as incumbency, fundraising strength, and limited Republican competitive signals in primaries. Trader consensus at 93% for Democrats aligns with these factors, while the low Republican probability stems from historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle national trends, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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