Recent releases have kept the AI model leaderboard fluid heading into mid-June, with Claude Opus 4.8’s late-May launch delivering incremental gains in coding, agentic workflows, and consistency that pushed it ahead on several benchmarks while GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro remain competitive on reasoning and multimodal tasks. Traders price “Other” at 62.9% because no single listed variant commands overwhelming consensus, reflecting ongoing parity across frontier labs and the likelihood that an unlisted model or updated configuration will top aggregated leaderboards on June 13. The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking captures lingering strength from its established performance in tool-use and long-horizon tasks, yet newer iterations and cross-model comparisons continue to fragment sentiment. With resolution only days away, any fresh benchmark drops or capability demonstrations could still shift the tight margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日その他 62.9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 37.5%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$25,514 Vol.
$25,514 Vol.
2026/06/13
その他
63%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
38%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
gemini-3.5-flash
<1%
その他 62.9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 37.5%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$25,514 Vol.
$25,514 Vol.
2026/06/13
その他
$10,730 Vol.
63%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,854 Vol.
38%
claude-opus-4-6
$4,033 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$1,814 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.5-flash
$858 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases have kept the AI model leaderboard fluid heading into mid-June, with Claude Opus 4.8’s late-May launch delivering incremental gains in coding, agentic workflows, and consistency that pushed it ahead on several benchmarks while GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro remain competitive on reasoning and multimodal tasks. Traders price “Other” at 62.9% because no single listed variant commands overwhelming consensus, reflecting ongoing parity across frontier labs and the likelihood that an unlisted model or updated configuration will top aggregated leaderboards on June 13. The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking captures lingering strength from its established performance in tool-use and long-horizon tasks, yet newer iterations and cross-model comparisons continue to fragment sentiment. With resolution only days away, any fresh benchmark drops or capability demonstrations could still shift the tight margin.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
音量
$25,514終了日
2026/06/13マーケット開始日
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases have kept the AI model leaderboard fluid heading into mid-June, with Claude Opus 4.8’s late-May launch delivering incremental gains in coding, agentic workflows, and consistency that pushed it ahead on several benchmarks while GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro remain competitive on reasoning and multimodal tasks. Traders price “Other” at 62.9% because no single listed variant commands overwhelming consensus, reflecting ongoing parity across frontier labs and the likelihood that an unlisted model or updated configuration will top aggregated leaderboards on June 13. The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking captures lingering strength from its established performance in tool-use and long-horizon tasks, yet newer iterations and cross-model comparisons continue to fragment sentiment. With resolution only days away, any fresh benchmark drops or capability demonstrations could still shift the tight margin.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$25,514終了日
2026/06/13マーケット開始日
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases have kept the AI model leaderboard fluid heading into mid-June, with Claude Opus 4.8’s late-May launch delivering incremental gains in coding, agentic workflows, and consistency that pushed it ahead on several benchmarks while GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro remain competitive on reasoning and multimodal tasks. Traders price “Other” at 62.9% because no single listed variant commands overwhelming consensus, reflecting ongoing parity across frontier labs and the likelihood that an unlisted model or updated configuration will top aggregated leaderboards on June 13. The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking captures lingering strength from its established performance in tool-use and long-horizon tasks, yet newer iterations and cross-model comparisons continue to fragment sentiment. With resolution only days away, any fresh benchmark drops or capability demonstrations could still shift the tight margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問