Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party to victory in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index bolstered by 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats—including DeSaulnier—and three Republicans, diluting GOP support and raising odds of two Democrats advancing to the November general election. No recent polls show competitiveness, and DeSaulnier's recent town hall underscored steady incumbency advantages. Upsets remain possible via Republican vote consolidation, unexpectedly high GOP primary turnout, or a late scandal affecting the frontrunner.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,353 Vol.
$12,353 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$12,353 Vol.
$12,353 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$6,730 Vol.
94%
共和党
$5,623 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party to victory in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index bolstered by 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats—including DeSaulnier—and three Republicans, diluting GOP support and raising odds of two Democrats advancing to the November general election. No recent polls show competitiveness, and DeSaulnier's recent town hall underscored steady incumbency advantages. Upsets remain possible via Republican vote consolidation, unexpectedly high GOP primary turnout, or a late scandal affecting the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$12,353終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party to victory in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index bolstered by 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats—including DeSaulnier—and three Republicans, diluting GOP support and raising odds of two Democrats advancing to the November general election. No recent polls show competitiveness, and DeSaulnier's recent town hall underscored steady incumbency advantages. Upsets remain possible via Republican vote consolidation, unexpectedly high GOP primary turnout, or a late scandal affecting the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,353終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party to victory in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index bolstered by 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats—including DeSaulnier—and three Republicans, diluting GOP support and raising odds of two Democrats advancing to the November general election. No recent polls show competitiveness, and DeSaulnier's recent town hall underscored steady incumbency advantages. Upsets remain possible via Republican vote consolidation, unexpectedly high GOP primary turnout, or a late scandal affecting the frontrunner.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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