The dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$49,038 Vol.
$49,038 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$49,038 Vol.
$49,038 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,602 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$49,038終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$49,038終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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