Trader consensus strongly favors consecutive holds at the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% through the June FOMC meeting, driven by the April 29 decision to stand pat amid March CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year and resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs. Market-implied odds reflect this data trajectory, with inflation forecasts revised higher and labor market conditions showing limited slack, prompting officials to delay any easing. Upcoming May CPI and payrolls releases, along with the June dot plot update, represent key swing factors that could shift pricing if they reveal faster disinflation or unexpected softening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.8%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.6%
その他 <1%
$1,103,405 Vol.
$1,103,405 Vol.
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
<1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.8%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.6%
その他 <1%
$1,103,405 Vol.
$1,103,405 Vol.
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
<1%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors consecutive holds at the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% through the June FOMC meeting, driven by the April 29 decision to stand pat amid March CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year and resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs. Market-implied odds reflect this data trajectory, with inflation forecasts revised higher and labor market conditions showing limited slack, prompting officials to delay any easing. Upcoming May CPI and payrolls releases, along with the June dot plot update, represent key swing factors that could shift pricing if they reveal faster disinflation or unexpected softening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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