Market participants have assigned overwhelming probability to Federal Reserve pauses across the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient economic data and inflation readings that remain above the 2% target. Steady labor market conditions and core CPI trends have reinforced trader expectations for a data-dependent stance, consistent with recent FOMC communications and projections that avoid signaling near-term easing. This consensus pricing incorporates the central bank's measured approach amid balanced risks. Sharper disinflation or unexpected labor market softening in upcoming releases ahead of the June decision represent the primary scenarios that could alter current odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.8%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.6%
その他 <1%
$1,103,112 Vol.
$1,103,112 Vol.
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.8%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.6%
その他 <1%
$1,103,112 Vol.
$1,103,112 Vol.
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
1%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market participants have assigned overwhelming probability to Federal Reserve pauses across the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient economic data and inflation readings that remain above the 2% target. Steady labor market conditions and core CPI trends have reinforced trader expectations for a data-dependent stance, consistent with recent FOMC communications and projections that avoid signaling near-term easing. This consensus pricing incorporates the central bank's measured approach amid balanced risks. Sharper disinflation or unexpected labor market softening in upcoming releases ahead of the June decision represent the primary scenarios that could alter current odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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