Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,744 Vol.
$20,744 Vol.
2026/08/18
ジャレッド・モスコウィッツ
35%
オリバー・アダムズ・ラーキン
30%
$20,744 Vol.
$20,744 Vol.
2026/08/18
ジャレッド・モスコウィッツ
$9,579 Vol.
35%
オリバー・アダムズ・ラーキン
$11,164 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
音量
$20,744終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$20,744終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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