The May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, represents the primary driver behind the 96.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC quickly classified global risk as low after the outbreak was traced to a single zoonotic spillover with limited subsequent human-to-human spread, typical of Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact. CDC surveillance updates through mid-June confirmed no imported cases or sustained transmission chains in the United States or elsewhere, aligning with the virus’s established epidemiology of sporadic rodent-borne infections rather than efficient airborne pandemic potential. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or an undetected surge in rodent reservoirs could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end, current official case data and monitoring show no such developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年のハンタウイルスのパンデミック？
2026年のハンタウイルスのパンデミック？
はい
4% 確率
$17,882,641 Vol.
$17,882,641 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
4% 確率
$17,882,641 Vol.
$17,882,641 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, represents the primary driver behind the 96.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC quickly classified global risk as low after the outbreak was traced to a single zoonotic spillover with limited subsequent human-to-human spread, typical of Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact. CDC surveillance updates through mid-June confirmed no imported cases or sustained transmission chains in the United States or elsewhere, aligning with the virus’s established epidemiology of sporadic rodent-borne infections rather than efficient airborne pandemic potential. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or an undetected surge in rodent reservoirs could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end, current official case data and monitoring show no such developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
音量
$17,882,641終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, represents the primary driver behind the 96.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC quickly classified global risk as low after the outbreak was traced to a single zoonotic spillover with limited subsequent human-to-human spread, typical of Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact. CDC surveillance updates through mid-June confirmed no imported cases or sustained transmission chains in the United States or elsewhere, aligning with the virus’s established epidemiology of sporadic rodent-borne infections rather than efficient airborne pandemic potential. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or an undetected surge in rodent reservoirs could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end, current official case data and monitoring show no such developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$17,882,641終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, represents the primary driver behind the 96.5% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official assessments from the WHO and CDC quickly classified global risk as low after the outbreak was traced to a single zoonotic spillover with limited subsequent human-to-human spread, typical of Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact. CDC surveillance updates through mid-June confirmed no imported cases or sustained transmission chains in the United States or elsewhere, aligning with the virus’s established epidemiology of sporadic rodent-borne infections rather than efficient airborne pandemic potential. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or an undetected surge in rodent reservoirs could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end, current official case data and monitoring show no such developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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