Short-term forecast uncertainty from regional meteorological models is keeping trader sentiment tightly clustered around 32–34°C for Chongqing’s August 8 peak, with each outcome near 24–27.5% implied probability. Subtropical high pressure, limited cloud cover, and urban heat-island effects in the Sichuan Basin support daytime highs in this narrow range, while variable humidity and possible weak frontal passages introduce enough spread to prevent any single threshold from dominating. Recent model consensus shows minimal day-to-day shifts, and historical August climatology places normal maxima near 33–34°C, reinforcing the balanced distribution. New runs from the China Meteorological Administration and updated satellite observations ahead of the weekend are the next likely catalysts for any re-pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月8日の重慶の最高気温は?
33°C 28%
34°C 25%
32°C 24%
31°C 11%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
11%
32°C
24%
33°C
28%
34°C
25%
35°C
9%
36℃以上
5%
33°C 28%
34°C 25%
32°C 24%
31°C 11%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
11%
32°C
24%
33°C
28%
34°C
25%
35°C
9%
36℃以上
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Short-term forecast uncertainty from regional meteorological models is keeping trader sentiment tightly clustered around 32–34°C for Chongqing’s August 8 peak, with each outcome near 24–27.5% implied probability. Subtropical high pressure, limited cloud cover, and urban heat-island effects in the Sichuan Basin support daytime highs in this narrow range, while variable humidity and possible weak frontal passages introduce enough spread to prevent any single threshold from dominating. Recent model consensus shows minimal day-to-day shifts, and historical August climatology places normal maxima near 33–34°C, reinforcing the balanced distribution. New runs from the China Meteorological Administration and updated satellite observations ahead of the weekend are the next likely catalysts for any re-pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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