Hong Kong's summer temperatures peak in early August amid persistent subtropical heat, high humidity, and urban heat island effects that often push daily maxima several degrees above the 31–32°C climatological average. With the Hong Kong Observatory forecasting normal to above-normal conditions for the month due to the long-term warming trend and neutral-to-favorable ENSO influences, short-term model guidance two days ahead points to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on August 8, supporting afternoon highs clustered in the mid-30s. These conditions explain why the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 34°C and 35°C, with modest support for 37°C if insolation strengthens or cloud cover remains limited. Updated HKO forecasts and any revisions to steering patterns or thunderstorm timing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月8日の香港の最高気温は?
35°C 35%
34°C 23%
37°C 21%
36°C 17%
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
9%
34°C
23%
35°C
35%
36°C
17%
37°C
21%
38°C
2%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 35%
34°C 23%
37°C 21%
36°C 17%
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
9%
34°C
23%
35°C
35%
36°C
17%
37°C
21%
38°C
2%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's summer temperatures peak in early August amid persistent subtropical heat, high humidity, and urban heat island effects that often push daily maxima several degrees above the 31–32°C climatological average. With the Hong Kong Observatory forecasting normal to above-normal conditions for the month due to the long-term warming trend and neutral-to-favorable ENSO influences, short-term model guidance two days ahead points to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on August 8, supporting afternoon highs clustered in the mid-30s. These conditions explain why the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 34°C and 35°C, with modest support for 37°C if insolation strengthens or cloud cover remains limited. Updated HKO forecasts and any revisions to steering patterns or thunderstorm timing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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