Stable high-pressure systems dominating southeastern Brazil are driving clear skies, strong solar insolation, and low humidity levels that favor efficient daytime heating in São Paulo, positioning maximum temperatures near 31–32°C as the market consensus for August 20. Ensemble guidance and official INMET outlooks indicate predominantly stable conditions with negligible precipitation risk and light winds, consistent with recent verified highs around 29°C on similar days and modestly above the long-term August climatological average of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads allow limited probability mass on 30°C or 33°C outcomes, while an ongoing broader warming influence from developing El Niño conditions supports the elevated baseline. Updated forecast runs and afternoon observations on the 20th represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月20日のサンパウロの最高気温は?
32°C 50%
31°C 37%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
26°C or below
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
37%
32°C
50%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 50%
31°C 37%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
26°C or below
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
37%
32°C
50%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Stable high-pressure systems dominating southeastern Brazil are driving clear skies, strong solar insolation, and low humidity levels that favor efficient daytime heating in São Paulo, positioning maximum temperatures near 31–32°C as the market consensus for August 20. Ensemble guidance and official INMET outlooks indicate predominantly stable conditions with negligible precipitation risk and light winds, consistent with recent verified highs around 29°C on similar days and modestly above the long-term August climatological average of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads allow limited probability mass on 30°C or 33°C outcomes, while an ongoing broader warming influence from developing El Niño conditions supports the elevated baseline. Updated forecast runs and afternoon observations on the 20th represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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