**Trader consensus centers on 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on August 26, reflecting JMA and ensemble guidance for a day under the influence of a strong Pacific High.** Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan through late summer, with daytime maxima typically 31–35°C and occasional excursions higher when subsidence and clear skies enhance insolation. For the 26th specifically, short-range runs show highs near 34–35°C, tempered by possible afternoon cloud build-up or scattered thunderstorms that limit extreme heating. Differentiation between the two leading bins hinges on exact timing of any convective activity, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification versus modest cooling from onshore flow or rain-cooled downdrafts. Historical August analogs and current model agreement support the tight 34–35°C clustering, with lower-probability outcomes requiring either stronger suppression of clouds or an unexpected surge in the subtropical ridge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月26日の東京の最高気温は？
8月26日の東京の最高気温は？
34°C 35%
35°C 31%
33°C 16%
36°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/26
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
16%
34°C
35%
35°C
31%
36°C
14%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 35%
35°C 31%
33°C 16%
36°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/26
28°C or below
$998 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$463 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7 Vol.
1%
31°C
$59 Vol.
2%
32°C
$257 Vol.
4%
33°C
$62 Vol.
16%
34°C
$211 Vol.
35%
35°C
$82 Vol.
31%
36°C
$411 Vol.
14%
37°C
$31 Vol.
4%
38°C or higher
$283 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on August 26, reflecting JMA and ensemble guidance for a day under the influence of a strong Pacific High.** Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan through late summer, with daytime maxima typically 31–35°C and occasional excursions higher when subsidence and clear skies enhance insolation. For the 26th specifically, short-range runs show highs near 34–35°C, tempered by possible afternoon cloud build-up or scattered thunderstorms that limit extreme heating. Differentiation between the two leading bins hinges on exact timing of any convective activity, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification versus modest cooling from onshore flow or rain-cooled downdrafts. Historical August analogs and current model agreement support the tight 34–35°C clustering, with lower-probability outcomes requiring either stronger suppression of clouds or an unexpected surge in the subtropical ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$2,864終了日
2026/08/26マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on August 26, reflecting JMA and ensemble guidance for a day under the influence of a strong Pacific High.** Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan through late summer, with daytime maxima typically 31–35°C and occasional excursions higher when subsidence and clear skies enhance insolation. For the 26th specifically, short-range runs show highs near 34–35°C, tempered by possible afternoon cloud build-up or scattered thunderstorms that limit extreme heating. Differentiation between the two leading bins hinges on exact timing of any convective activity, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification versus modest cooling from onshore flow or rain-cooled downdrafts. Historical August analogs and current model agreement support the tight 34–35°C clustering, with lower-probability outcomes requiring either stronger suppression of clouds or an unexpected surge in the subtropical ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,864終了日
2026/08/26マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Trader consensus centers on 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on August 26, reflecting JMA and ensemble guidance for a day under the influence of a strong Pacific High.** Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan through late summer, with daytime maxima typically 31–35°C and occasional excursions higher when subsidence and clear skies enhance insolation. For the 26th specifically, short-range runs show highs near 34–35°C, tempered by possible afternoon cloud build-up or scattered thunderstorms that limit extreme heating. Differentiation between the two leading bins hinges on exact timing of any convective activity, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification versus modest cooling from onshore flow or rain-cooled downdrafts. Historical August analogs and current model agreement support the tight 34–35°C clustering, with lower-probability outcomes requiring either stronger suppression of clouds or an unexpected surge in the subtropical ridge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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