The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに10年国債利回りはどのくらい高くなりますか？
2027年までに10年国債利回りはどのくらい高くなりますか？
$216,382 Vol.
2026/12/31
4.6%
95%
4.8%
45%
5.0％
25%
5.2％
12%
5.5％
7%
5.7%
6%
6.0%
4%
$216,382 Vol.
4.6%
$37,797 Vol.
95%
4.8%
$47,611 Vol.
45%
5.0％
$49,884 Vol.
25%
5.2％
$9,848 Vol.
12%
5.5％
$1,471 Vol.
7%
5.7%
$3,229 Vol.
6%
6.0%
$2,152 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
音量
$216,382終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$216,382終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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