**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries (50.4% probability), with 13-15 as the next most likely range (18.5%).** This reflects seven confirmed Democratic losses so far, an elevated total for a non-redistricting cycle that already exceeds the postwar average of roughly 6-7 House incumbent defeats overall. Recent results show progressive and outsider challengers defeating establishment figures in safe Democratic districts, including Diana DeGette (CO-1), John Larson (CT-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), and redistricting-related defeats for Al Green (TX-18) and Julie Johnson (TX-33). These outcomes stem from high primary challenge rates—nearly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents face opponents—driven by intraparty tensions over ideology, endorsements from left-leaning figures, and local dynamics in states with remaining contests. Additional primaries scheduled through late summer and fall could produce further upsets, supporting the narrow band around 10-12 as the current market equilibrium. Historical base rates for primary defeats remain low, but the pace of 2026 losses has traders pricing in modestly higher turnover than typical cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10〜12 50.4%
13～15 18.5%
7〜9 14.6%
3未満 <1%
$22,945 Vol.
$22,945 Vol.
3未満
1%
4〜6
<1%
7〜9
15%
10〜12
50%
13～15
19%
>15
1%
10〜12 50.4%
13～15 18.5%
7〜9 14.6%
3未満 <1%
$22,945 Vol.
$22,945 Vol.
3未満
$1,106 Vol.
1%
4〜6
$1,752 Vol.
<1%
7〜9
$11,401 Vol.
15%
10〜12
$4,414 Vol.
50%
13～15
$1,990 Vol.
19%
>15
$2,281 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries (50.4% probability), with 13-15 as the next most likely range (18.5%).** This reflects seven confirmed Democratic losses so far, an elevated total for a non-redistricting cycle that already exceeds the postwar average of roughly 6-7 House incumbent defeats overall.
Recent results show progressive and outsider challengers defeating establishment figures in safe Democratic districts, including Diana DeGette (CO-1), John Larson (CT-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), and redistricting-related defeats for Al Green (TX-18) and Julie Johnson (TX-33). These outcomes stem from high primary challenge rates—nearly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents face opponents—driven by intraparty tensions over ideology, endorsements from left-leaning figures, and local dynamics in states with remaining contests.
Additional primaries scheduled through late summer and fall could produce further upsets, supporting the narrow band around 10-12 as the current market equilibrium. Historical base rates for primary defeats remain low, but the pace of 2026 losses has traders pricing in modestly higher turnover than typical cycles.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
音量
$22,945マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries (50.4% probability), with 13-15 as the next most likely range (18.5%).** This reflects seven confirmed Democratic losses so far, an elevated total for a non-redistricting cycle that already exceeds the postwar average of roughly 6-7 House incumbent defeats overall.
Recent results show progressive and outsider challengers defeating establishment figures in safe Democratic districts, including Diana DeGette (CO-1), John Larson (CT-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), and redistricting-related defeats for Al Green (TX-18) and Julie Johnson (TX-33). These outcomes stem from high primary challenge rates—nearly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents face opponents—driven by intraparty tensions over ideology, endorsements from left-leaning figures, and local dynamics in states with remaining contests.
Additional primaries scheduled through late summer and fall could produce further upsets, supporting the narrow band around 10-12 as the current market equilibrium. Historical base rates for primary defeats remain low, but the pace of 2026 losses has traders pricing in modestly higher turnover than typical cycles.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
音量
$22,945マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries (50.4% probability), with 13-15 as the next most likely range (18.5%).** This reflects seven confirmed Democratic losses so far, an elevated total for a non-redistricting cycle that already exceeds the postwar average of roughly 6-7 House incumbent defeats overall. Recent results show progressive and outsider challengers defeating establishment figures in safe Democratic districts, including Diana DeGette (CO-1), John Larson (CT-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), and redistricting-related defeats for Al Green (TX-18) and Julie Johnson (TX-33). These outcomes stem from high primary challenge rates—nearly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents face opponents—driven by intraparty tensions over ideology, endorsements from left-leaning figures, and local dynamics in states with remaining contests. Additional primaries scheduled through late summer and fall could produce further upsets, supporting the narrow band around 10-12 as the current market equilibrium. Historical base rates for primary defeats remain low, but the pace of 2026 losses has traders pricing in modestly higher turnover than typical cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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