Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.5%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.7%
$26,917,574 Vol.
$26,917,574 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
71%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.5%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.7%
$26,917,574 Vol.
$26,917,574 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$4,188,479 Vol.
71%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$1,244,767 Vol.
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$1,204,248 Vol.
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$1,113,801 Vol.
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$1,196,018 Vol.
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$1,417,454 Vol.
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$2,489,288 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$1,323,336 Vol.
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,732,259 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$2,454,614 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$3,122,782 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$3,273,487 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$2,157,221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$26,917,574終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$26,917,574終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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